Eleven Things so Far


Although Kant’s Lutheran childhood in Konigsberg was a hundred years before Kierkegaard’s Lutheran childhood in Copenhagen the same inherited morality marked both men.” 
After Virtue’, Alasdair MacIntyre

1.

I don’t know.


2.

Edward de Bono, the inventor of lateral thinking, suggests a number of techniques for when you get stuck: one of them involves finding a word or passage in a book ‘at random’ and working from there.  The psychogeographers have similar games, while the I Ching finds the idea of ‘at random’ vaguely amusing.  (Carl Jung’s introduction to the I Ching puts ‘at random’ in (as Daniel Dennett ascribes them) ‘scare quotes’, so I’m merely following mystico-philosophical-show-off protocol.)

Three random numbers – the nth book along the shelf, the nth page, the nth line – took me to the quote at the top of the page.  Is not this as reasonable a place to start as any in this time of Covid-19? 

From it we could launch into the letter K, and thus to Calasso on Kafka, and thus to the pure ambivalence of our sense of helplessness and our urge for control, and thus to the myths, ritual and gestures of our world, past, present and to come.

Or to the idea of a century, and Sleeping Beauty, and Eric Hobsbawm, and how the future will look back on this time a hundred years hence, as we look back on the Spanish ’flu of 1918.

Or to the idea of ‘inherited morality’ and the question: just how much of what we think we have worked out is, in fact, just stuff we inherited.  All these words! All these metaphors!  All these pontifications!


3.

Enough with the guff.  Real things are happening to real people.  Essays from people like Charles Eisenstein are away with the fairies.  (He reminds me of Ken Wilber – “Ken Wilber has long been hailed as one of the most influential thinkers of our time” according to the blurb on the back of my copy of the modestly-titled ‘A Theory of Everything’ – a man who thought he’d figured everything out and deigned to explain it to us by means of a diagram of concentric circles of consciousness, each of a different colour, for chrissakes.)  They become surrounded by snow-blind acolytes, subsumed by their own hype, muffled into gibberish by the flights of their own fancy.  (This is not an ad hominem attack; I merely compress for concision.)

I would once have said ‘These people need to get out a bit more’ but that’s clearly inappropriate now.  Instead I’ll try: these people need to address the question put regularly and forcefully to me by my great friend Lilian Greenwood MP whenever I wax a little too lyrical about my fabulous insights about the nature of an ‘economy of enough’ (because yes, I know, I may be one of ‘these people’):

Well that’s great David, (she would say) but what would you like me to tell my constituents tomorrow?

And it’s true, isn’t it?  We in the ‘climate change’ world or the ‘sustainability’ world or the ‘environmental’ world or the ‘academic’ world or whichever bloody insular pond we live in (smug reference to the marvellous ‘On Choosing the Right Pond’ by Robert Frank) find it far too easy to talk amongst ourselves and end up somewhere between ignored and irrelevant.  We fail to heed Illich’s warning in ‘Disabling Professions’; we fail to learn from Clive James’s exposition of our duties as set out in the astonishing ‘Cultural Amnesia’.

And yes, I know, I know, I’m making references and wearing my learning on display and my mother will at this point be saying to herself: What is he on about?

Because there are real things happening to real people.  Real people are really dying.  Real people really do live in shit housing with shit people of whom they are afraid.  Real children are really hungry.  Right now.

Fuck Eisenstein’s ‘coherency’.  Fuck 5G conspiracy theories.  Fuck premature prognostications.


4.

In ‘At Home’ Bill Bryson writes:

Though no one intended it, the effect [of there being more than 17,000 Church of England clergymen in the middle of the nineteenth century who had little to do] was to create a class of well-educated, wealthy people who had immense amounts of time on their hands.  In consequence many of them began, quite spontaneously, to do remarkable things.  Never in history have a group of people engaged in a broader range of creditable activities for which they were not in any sense actually employed.”

Key word here: ‘creditable’.  Here’s a few of the things Bryson tells us they got up to:

  • George Bayldon compiled the world’s first dictionary of Icelandic
  • Laurence Sterne wrote ‘The Life and Opinions of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman
  • Edmund Cartwright invented the power loom
  • Jack Russell bred the terrier that bears his name
  • William Buckland wrote the first scientific description of dinosaurs
  • Thomas Malthus wrote ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population’ and effectively started the discipline of political economy
  • William Greenwell was the founding father of modern archaeology and also invented ‘Greenwell’s Glory’, “the most beloved of trout flies”
  • Octavius Pickard-Cambridge became the world’s leading authority on spiders
  • William Shepherd wrote a history of dirty jokes
  • John Clayton gave the first practical demonstration of gas lighting
  • George Garrett invented the submarine
  • Adam Buddle (of Essex!) gave his name to the buddleia
  • John MacKenzie Bacon was the first aerial photographer
  • Sabine Baring-Gould wrote ‘Onward Christian Soldiers’ and “more unexpectedly, the first novel featuring a werewolf”
  • John Michell taught William Herschel how to build a telescope
  • Thomas Bayes devised Bayes Theorem, a method for tackling complex problems in probability that had no practical use for almost two centuries until computers came along with the power actually to deploy it

OK, enough already.  Not one of these people disappeared up their own arse in the belief that they had achieved some over-privileged insight.  And why? Because at least once a week they had to stand up in front of a group of perfectly ordinary people and talk to them in terms they understood.  They were forced to stay grounded.

We absolutely have to stay grounded.  I don’t necessarily propose that unless you regularly actually go out and talk with ordinary people you should shut the fuck up; but, unless you regularly go out and actually talk with ordinary people, you should shut the fuck up.

5.

The first thing I think it’s shown us – and by ‘it’ I do of course mean ‘it’ – is the difference between ‘needs’ and ‘wants’.

All that stuff we used to do: buy clothes, fly on holiday, buy a new car, dream of a new front door, hanker for a new sofa, order eggs benedict on artisanal toast… 

And now?  Food.  Is there enough?

Shelter.  Does everyone have somewhere decent and safe to stay?

Care. Does everyone have someone looking out for them, making sure they’re ok?

Health.  Do we have enough (healthy) healthcare workers?  Are there enough machines and equipment?

Maintenance.  Do we have enough drivers, cleaners, shop-workers to keep the show on the road?  Is there power and water?

These are our needs.  These are everyone’s needs.   (See Professor Ian Gough.) These are the only bits of an economy we really need.   Everything else was… fluff.  (This is the sort of thing that the Economics of Enough is all about.)


6.

Here are some limericks, in ascending order:

The virus called Covid-19
is virulent, nasty and mean.
To foster resistance
maintain social distance
and remember to keep your hands clean.

A man who once lived by the river
was reflecting on life, with a shiver:
in the time of corona
he’d become quite a loner
and was slowly destroying his liver.

There once was an old academic
who predicted a global pandemic
but the morons in charge
(and the public at large)
accused her of misplaced polemic.

There once was a man from El Paso
who thought he would write an epistle
but rather than ask us
he moved to Damascus
and there he became an apostle.

There once was a limerick writer
who thought that his scan should be a little bit tighter.
So too his rhyme
(which was charming, but fine)
but in the end he decided he could best meet his needs in some other way so instead he became a great painter.


7.

Talk has begun of the ‘exit strategy’.  And plenty of people are also talking about all the things they want to see different ‘afterwards’.

Generally, as far as I can tell, these plenty of people – all of whom are serious and well-meaning – are asking for the same things they’ve always asked for: for more trees, fewer evil corporations, an economy in the shape of a circle or a doughnut or an éclair, proper funding for this that or the other, an end to homelessness and hunger and poverty.   I’m seeing it being written that, in order to get these (in general laudable) things, the policy options need to be ‘oven ready’ or ‘on the table’ or some other metaphor indicating that the idea has to be sitting there just waiting for the moment when…

When what?

When a calm and thoughtful politician decides it would be a good idea?  When a high-impact think-tank puts it into a paper which is well-received by an open-minded SPAD?  When a courageous civil servant or a parliamentary committee or an aspiring opposition leader indicates his or her interest?

What is happening right now is way, way outside the think tanks and the media bubbles and the usual channels.  What is happening now is tens and hundreds and thousands of millions of people having the most profound experience of their lives.  We are in the middle of the most profound flux.  (I would contend it may be even more disruptive than a full-on war – not in terms of total deaths, but in terms of shaking fundamental personal, social and political assumptions.  Wars are something we as a culture have had lots of practice at – every nation on earth has a war myth close to its national heart.  Which means we have some experience of what happens to us once we’ve had one.  But this?  We have no experience.  Where is our ‘we survived a pandemic’ cultural myth?) (What would it even look like?))

Right now we are inside a Rumsfeldian vortex: we don’t even know what we don’t know about what is happening.  (The first casualty of war is truth; the first casualty of COVID is orientation.)

Talk about afterwards if you want; but don’t expect it to mean much.  After what?  We don’t even know what the what is yet.


8.

That which happens next is a function of what has gone before.  The economy is not some abstract entity: it is the outcome of, and frame for, the millions of individual choices we make and actions we take.  Previous patterns in those choices and actions provide the basis for economic abstractions, and thus theories, and thus models.  Underlying all those choices and actions?  Lives and thoughts, values and beliefs, wishes and dreams.

So what happens when the lives and thoughts and values and beliefs and wishes and dreams are messed with?

In complex systems, there is the notion of ‘path dependency’.  The economy is not a machine that will or even can return to some previous abstract state of ‘equilibrium’.  It is a complex, open, evolving system.  What happens ‘next’ is a function of what has been going on recently.  The path of its evolution determines its future path.  It is ‘path dependent’.

Which means: only when you have a good idea of what has been going on can you have any idea at all about what might happen next.

And since we don’t know what’s going on, we have no idea of the nature of the path on which we shall at some point be dependent.

Plan for the exit from lockdown, yes; proselytize on what the economy will be ‘like’ in a year or more – no.


9.

Or maybe not.  Perhaps some things are already clear.  Perhaps some features of the future are already crystallising; perhaps some elements of the path are solidifying.

The NHS, for example.  I think it’s safe to say it’s going to be much harder for any politician, of any stripe,  to be seen jeopardising or threatening the NHS for at least the next twenty years.

So there’s a thread into the future.  No future economic or political solution for the UK will involve jeopardy to the NHS of the kind that has characterised the past decade or two.

Which, if accurate, will have implications for all sorts of things – not least tax.

But what about – say – homelessness?  Suddenly the State has managed to house thousands of rough sleepers.  Does that mean that the formerly-homeless can expect to remain in re-purposed hotels for the rest of time?  Seems less likely.

Pick any feature of this surreal now and ask: stable into the future or not?  Each element is a piece of the jigsaw, a piece of the path upon which the future will walk.  Look!  Too much of it is fluid, mysterious, unknowable.


10.

I watched an interview with a man who had recently left hospital having recovered from being severely unwell with COVID-19.  He was asked if he had been changed by the experience.

Many people are indeed changed by a profound health experience.  Most people who have survived cancer, for example, see the world, and their life, differently afterwards.  Their priorities change.  Things that had previously seemed incidental, or trivial, or that they had taken for granted, become dramatically more important.  I think of Clive James and the poetry he produced in those last few years after his terminal illness was diagnosed; or the entire works of Kurt Vonnegut, who survived the bombing of Dresden by hiding in a refrigerator and for whom every subsequent minute of his life was a gift.

Will we all be changed by this mass experienced of sickness and death?

“It certainly feels like that at the moment,” the man answered.  “Ask me again in a year.”


11.

Where does it end?  It’s a messy, co-evolving, complex open system, wriggling in the darkness.  There is no ‘end’.

But stop we must.  Stop I must.  And I shall stop as I meant to begin, with three random numbers, which take me to “Scientific Realism & Human Emancipation” by Roy Bhaskar, page 94, first sentence:

Constant conjunctions are not generally spontaneously available in nature, but rather need to be worked for in the laboratories of science; so that causal laws, together with the other objects in the lexicon of scientific investigation, must, if that investigative activity is to be rendered intelligible, be regarded as ontologically irreducible to the pattern of events and the activities of human beings alike.”

And I’m sure we can all agree with that.
























Comments

Nithya said…
Build Back Better is an excellent initiative in getting back up on the feet after this covid era. Looking after our key workers is another important concept that we learnt at some of the Top IAS coaching centres in Chennai. Giving appreciation, taking care and making them feel valued is of utmost importance.
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